|North American PCB and EMS Business Growth Continued in June|
Printed circuit board (PCB) and electronics manufacturing services (EMS) industries in North America continued to report positive growth in June 2016, based on three-month rolling averages. Semiconductor shipments continued to show signs of recovery in June, although year-on-year sales growth remains negative, based on a three-month rolling average. The turnaround for semiconductor sales began in April 2016 after a steep decline that spanned 12 months.
Two leading indicators, the U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and U.S. new orders for computer and electronic products, were mixed in June. The PMI strengthened and remained in positive territory, while U.S. new orders strengthened slightly in June but remained negative. The PMI typically leads sales by three to six months and U.S. new orders for electronic products tend to lead sales by one to two months.
Another leading indicator, IPC’s PCB book-to-bill ratio, is based on three-month rolling averages of orders and sales, and normally leads PCB sales by three to six months. The ratio was positive during the first five months of 2016, but slipped into negative territory to 0.98 in June due to declines in order in April and May. Ratios above parity (1.00) indicate greater demand than supply, which may be a precursor of strengthening sales for electronics manufacturers. These indicators point to a possible slowdown in electronics industry sales this summer, followed by slow growth in subsequent months.
Note on the graph: All indices are based on the same baseline of the average month in 2000=100, and reflect a three-month rolling average.
Sources: IPC statistical programs for the EMS and PCB industries; SIA for semiconductor data; U.S. Census Bureau for U.S. new orders for computer and electronic products.
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Source: IPC Global Solder Statistical Program
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